Tagged: Mike Francesa

The rest debate does not rest

Pettitte to start game 6 on 3 days rest.

Pettitte 11:3.pngAndy Pettitte gets the nod tomorrow in game 6 and will be pitching on 3 days rest for the first time since 2006. That starts the debate. We started hearing about it yesterday, and we haven’t stopped hearing about it since: The ineffectiveness of starters on 3 days rest.

Starters in the World Series on 3 days rest are 12-36 in the last 48 decisions. I’ve been watching Mike Francesa a lot today, and he has brought up that number about 50 times.

Here’s my counter. In 2009, starters have a lower ERA on 3 days rest then on 4 days, 5 days and 6 days rest. In the last 10 World Series starts on 3 days rest, 6 of them have been quality starts, including 6 starts with less than 2 runs allowed, a complete game, an average of 6.1 innings pitched per start, and an ERA 3.73. Those numbers are not to bad at all.

So, you can go with the recent history or you can go with the information used by the critics that dates back to the 80’s when the game was completely different.

Not to mention that of the last 10 World Series starts on 3 days rest, two of them were tomorrows starter, Andy Pettitte. In those 2 starts, he pitched 17 innings and gave up ZERO runs. So, all of the sudden, the stats are completely in Petttittes favor tomorrow.

But, of course, Mike Francesa had a counter argument for that. He pointed out that both of those Pettitte starts were a long time ago, 6 and 13 years respectively. Mike said that Andy is an older man now and is not the same pitcher.

Okay, so lets look at the older pitchers on 3 days rest. Lets look at pitchers of the same age as Pettitte (37), on 3 days rest in the World Series. It has been done 4 times. They combine for a 3-1 record, 3 complete games, 2 complete game shutouts and a 2.90 ERA.

If you look at the relevant stats, not the ones that are convienient for the Yankee haters, then you realize that Pettitte realy has the advantage going on 3 days rest. I don’t know how much these stats can tell us, but if the critics claim their stats will predict something, then I’ll claim mine will to, and these stats give Pettitte the advantage.

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